quarta-feira, 9 de novembro de 2011

Roubini on Brazil

The first time I sat down last year to try to learn something about now-President Dilma, one thing in particular leapt out at me. It was a brief passage that I found in Bloomberg (this was over a year ago, so I don't have the link) to the effect of this:

Reporter: Can Brazil keep growing at this fast pace without major structural reform?
Dilma, looking irritated at someone questioning Brazil's economy: Is Brazil growing now?
Reporter: Yes...
Dilma: Then it can grow.

Obviously, what struck me about it was the incredible stupidity of the presidential candidate (who is an economist), akin to someone in airplane that's out of fuel claiming she can fly for eternity. Dilma has growing on me since that offensively idiotic statement, especially with the ministerial bloodbath that is continually happening. But the issue of structure reform hasn't gone away, and as far as I can tell, probably won't in my lifetime.

Nouriel Roubini made headlines in Brazil today with skepticism about Brazil's future, noting that the few good years that Brazil has been having until now are far from a guarantee of future success. The main weaknesses that he pointed to in Brazil's economy:

-Dependence on commodities - as soon as commodity prices fall globally, Brazil will be in trouble.
-Lack of investment - despite various investment programs (PAC 1 and 2, investments for the World Cup and Olympics), Brazil is simply not capable of investing what it needs to guarantee future growth. This includes mainly education and infrastructure, which have the power to seriously limit progress if they stay the way they are.

On the plus side, all is well as far as energy, and at least the country's financial system isn't capable of destroying the economy for it's own gain.

In the end, pretty typical stuff that you'll read over and over again researching the Brazilian economy. Views on Brazil seem to have cooled a bit over the last year.

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